With the constant political uncertainty surrounding the US, the Dollar regardless of its positive data has struggled to exploit any positive news, however this changed following the release of July’s Non-Farm Payrolls allowing some much-needed Dollar strength.
US Non-Farms Beat Expectation
The Non-Farms number provided the USD with a much-needed shot in the arm following the latest round of non-Farm payrolls. Markets had anticipated 182,000 jobs to be added to the US economy however the number beat expectation with 219,000 new work placements added.
The number was over shadowed by June’s results which reached 231,000 and provided some long-awaited Dollar strength. Regardless of July’s numbers being eclipsed by the previous month markets got the desired effect. One of The Federal Bank’s keystones for raising interest rates is a strong labour market and with non-farms; the key indicator for US job creation providing an above estimate reading in 3 of the last 5 months you would imagine the FED will come under more pressure to raise rates at least by the end of the year and in the nearer term will start tapering their $4.2BN Treasury Bond portfolio.
Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings
Thankfully US unemployment numbers didn’t over achieve, the reading provided a steady and anticipated 4.3%. Unemployment in the US now finds itself equalling a 16-year low which was set in May. With unemployment declining from a year high of 4.8% in February.
With employment in the US in great shape another objective for the FED was to achieve sustainable wage growth and August’s figures will go some way towards that. August’s average hourly wage growth increased from 0.2% last month to 0.3% this month, the equivalent of nine cents in monetary terms.
Fridays US Jobs Data Provided Much Needed Dollar Strength
The US Dollar has struggled against a basket of currencies in recent months. The majority of its weakness was due to political uncertainties rather than a weak economy. The FED have also been unwilling to taper and have adopted more of a ‘toe dip in water’ approach delaying an almost inevitable third interest rate hike and the tapering of their Treasury Bond portfolio. Friday’s data will undoubtedly comfort any FOMC members who are sat on the fence.
Following the trio of US data releases the US Dollar strengthened against a host of currencies including the Australian Dollar, Euro, Canadian Dollar and Pound.
The most notable correction was with AUD/USD which fell from 0.7970 to 0.7896 in the hours following the US jobs data. A contributory factor being the Reserve Bank Of Australia cutting next year’s GDP growth forecast from 3% to 2% late on Thursday evening.
The EUR/USD fell just as unceremoniously dropping from 1.1877 to 1.1739. The pair have now begun retracing much of the losses back, with EUR/USD closing at 1.1792 only just over a cent away from last week’s high of 1.1896.
