Wednesdays data run begins with figures from Australia NZ and Europe.
The RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle speaks at an FX week Asia conference in Singapore. There is no specific agenda for the speech so expect him to provide a resume of yesterday’s data housing data and overall view of the economy. A positive tone will provide strength for the Australian dollar likewise a pessimistic tone will have the reverse affect.
Following the speech in Singapore focus turns to New Zealand and the release of the ANZ business confidence. The trend with this particular index has been positive and last month reached a reading of 20.2. Although it is not anticipated to trump last month’s reading a number of 16.0 is expected. It will be very interesting to see if the recent Interest rate cut has achieved the desired effect.
Following the day’s opening in the southern hemisphere Wednesday moves to the European, US and Canadian markets with key data from all markets. We begin in the Eurozone with data from Germany and combined data across the single currency.
To begin we have the release of monthly German Retail sales figure which are anticipated to show slight growth moving from -0.1% to 0.5%. ZEW confidence showed an unexpected confidence in the German economy and we could well see it achieve its target. Following the retail sales data, the German Unemployment data will be published. Expected to show that two thousand less German citizens are unemployed compared to the previous month. The figure would appear to be achievable, if not the euro will surely lose ground against the majors.
Following German data, we see the release of Eurozone inflation figures including yearly CPI expected to show a small change from 0.2% in July to 0.3%. CPI is an estimated inflation figure which is based upon energy prices within the Eurozone member states. The core flash CPI data that follows is an overall view of the cost of consumer goods and services. It is estimate to remain fairly static at 0.9% the same as previous reading.
If either the Flash core or Flash CPI exceeds protected levels, this will support the Euro.
In the afternoon the markets attention turns to the US and Canada both with a few key releases.
The US posts its monthly ADP non-farm payroll numbers which are expected to show that 173k US citizens found work in August. This will be looked at keenly by the markets as positive job figures are one of the key drivers for interest rate hikes. If the number misses’ expectation it would attribute to the rate being held for longer.
Also for the US we have monthly Chicago purchase managers index and pending home sales. The PMI figure is expected to reach 54.8 and it’s worth noting it has come in above target 3 of the last 5 readings. Pending home sales haven’t however and this may be due to procrastination due to the upcoming presidential election. The Pending home sales figure is expected at 0.7%but only achieved 0.2% last month.
Between this US data we have the release of the monthly Canadian GDP which has either disappointed or remained on target in the last 4 readings. The figure is expected to show 0.5% growth however the last reading showed a decline coming in at -0.6%. So it would appear it quite a big ask in my opinion.
Thursday morning sees the release Chinese manufacturing which is expected to show slight contraction. The number is expected to reach 49.9 the same as the last reading. Any number lower than this would show a slowing of the economy and as Australia’s premier trading partner could potential see the AUD slide.
Following the manufacturing data, we have a Chinese Non-manufacturing PMI which in the last few readings has shown staggered growth. Although no bench mark is sent an improvement on last month’s figure of 53.9 would be greatly received.
Chinese data is concluded with the monthly Caixin Manufacturing PMI which is expected at 50.1 slightly lower than last month’s figure.
Concentration then turns to Australia with the latest quarterly Private Capital Expenditure figures. Used to show the health of Australian businesses an expected figure of -0.4% or superior would show more business confidence within the economy. Australian retail sales are published after, last month’s reading of 0.1% wasn’t the first disappointing result for this statistic and if it was to miss expectation and some Chinese data was to also disappoint it could be a bad day for the AUD.
Thursday concludes in Europe and the US with Manufacturing PMI for Spain and The UK. Spanish manufacturing is projected to show slight decline which could be expected with holidays etc. A number of 50.8 is projected. The UK’s figure is anticipated to show a slight uplift from last month and a positive number would surely help the GBP.
The final indicators come from the US and consist of Unemployment claims and ISM manufacturing PMI. Claimants are expected to rise slightly from 261K last month to 265k although this target could well be surpassed boding well the USD and a potential future rate hike. ISM manufacturing figures are expected to reach 52.0. This index missed last month’s target of 53.1 reaching 52.6 it will be interesting to see if this is just an anomaly.
Wednesdays data run begins with figures from Australia NZ and Europe.
The RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle speaks at an FX week Asia conference in Singapore. There is no specific agenda for the speech so expect him to provide a resume of yesterday’s data housing data and overall view of the economy. A positive tone will provide strength for the Australian dollar likewise a pessimistic tone will have the reverse affect.
Following the speech in Singapore focus turns to New Zealand and the release of the ANZ business confidence. The trend with this particular index has been positive and last month reached a reading of 20.2. Although it is not anticipated to trump last month’s reading a number of 16.0 is expected. It will be interesting to see if the recent Interest rate cut has achieved the desired effect.
Following the day’s opening in the southern hemisphere Wednesday moves to the European, US and Canadian markets with key data from all of the mentioned. We begin in the Eurozone with data from Germany and combined data across the single currency.
To begin we have the release of monthly German Retail sales figure which are anticipated to show slight growth moving from -0.1% to 0.5%. ZEW confidence showed an unexpected confidence in the German economy and we could well see it achieve its target. Following the retail sales data, the German Unemployment data will be published. Expected to show that two thousand less German citizens are unemployed compared to the previous month. The figure would appear to be achievable, if not the euro will surely lose ground against the majors.
Following German data, we see the release of Eurozone inflation figures including yearly CPI expected to show a small change from 0.2% in July to 0.3%. CPI is an estimated inflation figure which is based upon energy prices within the Eurozone member states. The core flash CPI data that follows is an overall view of the cost of consumer goods and services. It is estimate to remain fairly static at 0.9% the same as previous reading.
If either the Flash core or Flash CPI exceeds protected levels, this will support the Euro.
In the afternoon the markets attention turns to the US and Canada both with a few key releases.
The US posts its monthly ADP non-farm payroll numbers which are expected to show that 173k US citizens found work in August. This will be looked at keenly by the markets as positive job figures are one of the key drivers for interest rate hikes. If the number misses’ expectation it would attribute to the rate being held for longer.
Also for the US we have monthly Chicago purchase managers index and pending home sales. The PMI figure is expected to reach 54.8 and it’s worth noting it has come in above target 3 of the last 5 readings. Pending home sales haven’t however and this may be due to procrastination from to the upcoming presidential election. The Pending home sales figure is expected at 0.7%but only achieved 0.2% last month.
Between this US data we have the release of the monthly Canadian GDP which has either disappointed or remained on target in the last 4 readings. The figure is expected to show 0.5% growth however the last reading showed a decline coming in at -0.6%. So it would appear it quite a big ask in my opinion.
Thursday morning see the release Chinese manufacturing which is expected to show slight contraction. The number is expected to reach 49.9 the same as the last reading. Any number lower than this would show a slowing of the economy and as Australia’s premier trading partner could potential see the AUD slide.
Following the manufacturing data, we have a Chinese Non-manufacturing PMI which in the last few readings has shown staggered growth. Although no bench mark is sent an improvement on last month’s figure of 53.9 would be greatly received.
Chinese data is concluded with the monthly Caixin Manufacturing PMI which is expected at 50.1 slightly lower than last month’s figure.
Concentration then turns to Australia with the latest quarterly Private Capital Expenditure figures. Used to show the health of Australian businesses an expected figure of -0.4% or superior would show more business confidence within the economy. Australian retails sales are published after, last month’s reading of 0.1% wasn’t the first disappointing result for this statistic and if it was to miss expectation and some Chinese data was to also disappoint it could be a bad day for the AUD.
Thursday concludes in Europe and the US with Manufacturing PMI for Spain and The UK. Spanish manufacturing is projected to show slight decline which could be expected with holidays etc. A number of 50.8 is projected. The UK’s figure is anticipated to show a slight uplift from last month and a positive number would surely help the GBP.
The final indicators come from the US and consist of Unemployment claims and ISM manufacturing PMI. Claimants are expected to rise slightly from 261K last month to 265k although this target could well be surpassed boding well the USD and a potential future rate hike. ISM manufacturing figures are expected to reach 52.0. This index missed last month’s target of 53.1 reaching 52.6 it will be interesting to see if this is just an anomaly.
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